Quick thoughts: Will the Nevada Legislature fund the A's?
The answer is a resounding . . . probably.
HEART OF THE ORDER
My guess is that after lawmakers return to Carson City on Monday, the bill to provide nearly $400 million for the Athletics’$1.5 billion ballpark in Las Vegas will pass the committee.
This is largely based on Jon Ralston’s take. If you know anything about Nevada politics, you who Ralston is. If you know nothing about politics in the Silver State, Jon Ralston is like . . . well there is no one like him anywhere in the country. He is currently the CEO of the Nevada Independent, and he has been a longtime reporter, columnist, and TV commentator. He is the ultimate authority on Nevada politics.
This is from his Twitter feed.
“A's reality check: I see a lot of Twitter commentary (and screeching) about how terrible this deal is, no way it will go through, etc. Most of these lukewarm takes come from people who don't understand the NV Legislature. I still think it's more likely to pass than not.”
There is more here.
Late maneuvering
Right now the main hurdle is the Senate’s Committee of the Whole. Earlier this week Ralston tweeted that there were eight votes for, eight against, five undecided. The bill needs 11 to pass.
These things have a way of getting decided in the pro sports team’s favor in Nevada, Ralston points out.
I will add that they have a way of getting decided in the pro sports team’s everywhere — not just Nevada.
I vividly remember the Illinois Senate turning back the hands of the clock in the chamber to meet a deadline to pass funding for the second Comiskey Park and keep the White Sox from moving to Tampa Bay.
I am not anticipating time anything like that, but there will probably be horse-trading and arm-twisting before the bill gets to Gov. Joe Lombardo, who will undoubtedly sign it. He called a special session just for this purpose.
There is some possible downside for any legislator who votes for this. Public comments on the Legislature’s website have been running heavily against funding the stadium.
But a poll — commissioned by the A’s — shows the majority of Clark County residents support funding. Las Vegas in located in Clark County. So, there’s that.
Getting the OK from the owners
If the A’s get the state funding, the move from Oakland must be approved by the other MLB owners. That should be a slam dunk.
Bay Area fans who want the A’s to stay put are hanging their hats on how the National League owners blocked the sale of the Giants to a group headed by Vince Naimoli, a Tampa area businessman. Vince Piazza, the father of then-Dodgers prospect Mike Piazza, was part of the group.
Ten of the 13 club owners (Bob Lurie who was selling the Giants didn’t have a vote) needed to OK the deal. Lurie got just nine votes.
Never say never, as one of my journalism teachers used to say. But a similar move by the owners is highly unlikely.
There is no sale of the team involved, so the club owners don’t need to vet John Fisher and his ownership group.
MLB views getting the Athletics out of the Oakland ballpark as one of its most pressing issues. Any solution would be welcome.
The only other hitch would be for Fisher and the other members of the Athletics ownership to show they have the money to build the $1.5 billion project.
I gotta believe if Fisher didn’t have the money, he’d be asking for more.
A good market?
MLB may regret this move.
Las Vegas is a somewhat small and saturated market — with the NHL Vegas Knights, the NFL Raiders, and the WNBA Aces. Keep in mind that an MLB team would play more home games in its regular season than the other three combined.
Las Vegas is the 29th largest metropolitan statistical area, behind Pittsburgh and ahead of Cincinnati, with 2.3 million people.
Oakland is part of the 13th-largest metropolitan statistical area with about 4.6 million people.
It is within two hours of Sacramento, which is part of the 27th largest metropolitan statistical area. According to Stats America’s Big Radius tool, there are 12.3 million people living within 100 miles of Oakland.
There are 2.6 million people living within 100 miles of Las Vegas.
So even though a team in Oakland must share the market with the Giants, it is a much larger market.
The Athletics are pinning their hopes in Las Vegas on the team’s ability to lure tourists to the ballpark. In fact, if the move is completed, the team is weighing starting games at 4 p.m., so the out-of-towners can go to the game before hitting the night spots.
Innovative? Yes. Untested? Yes again. Will it work? Uh . . .
Looks as though we are likely to find out.