Rolling a seven instead of snake eyes
In Corbin Carroll, the D-Backs finally have a top draft pick who looks like he will become a true star.
HEART OF THE ORDER
Poor choices
The D-backs’ track record with high draft choices is sketchy, but Corbin Carroll may represent a new era.
The MLB draft is hit or miss for every organization. But for the Diamondbacks, the hits have been rare —— especially in the first round.
The list of the D-backs first-round picks includes two pitchers who won Cy Young Awards —— but were traded away before they blossomed —— a power hitter who was named in the Mitchell Report, and several who topped out in the minor leagues.
The organization’s top homegrown stars, pitcher Brandon Webb and first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, were late-round picks and largely sleepers in the minors.
Things may have changed. And exhibit A for the organization’s new-found confidence and possible competence in drafting is Corbin Carroll, a compact package of speed and power who looks to be on his way to becoming a first-round pick who turns into a true star with the team.
No Diamondbacks player has ever won the National League Rookie of the Year award. Carroll looks like he has a good chance of being the first.
On Friday, June 16, when Carroll came to the plate in the first inning at Chase Field, he was hitting .306, fifth best in the National League, with an OPS of .978, second in the NL.
By coincidence, Carroll was facing the Guardians’ Touki Toussaint.
The old days
If Carroll represents a new era for the D-backs drafting prowess, perhaps no player better exemplifies the frustration D-backs fans have felt toward the team’s draft process than Touki Toussaint.
Know this: The ire was never directed at Toussiant but at the front office.
The team plucked Dany Gilbert Kiti Toussaint, a right-handed pitcher and recent graduate of Coral Springs Christian Academy in Flordia, with the 16th pick of the 2014 MLB draft, 15 days before his 18th birthday.
The D-backs may have overreached a bit. Baseball America projected him to go to the Dodgers at No. 22. He had signed a letter of intent to go to Vanderbilt —— so that was a good sign.
Right-handed pitchers out of high school face long odds to make it to the majors and are considered high risk in the draft unless there is somehow an extraordinary upside —— or a high ceiling, as they say, in player development circles. An example would be a pitcher who throws 100 mph and might develop into an ace.
Toussaint’s fastball was in the low 90s that spring and he was projected as a No.2 starter in the majors. He had a good curve but needed more command.
The 2014 D-backs were on their way to compiling the worst record in MLB (64-98). There wasn’t much positive for TV announcers Steve Berthiaume and Bob Brenly to talk about. So every time Toussaint made a start in the Arizona League and in the Pioneer League that summer, they mentioned him.
Toussaint, or rather his memorable name, came to represent the fans’ hope for a better tomorrow. The vast majority never saw him pitch, although they could have seen his appearances at various spring training facilities that summer. They might have been a little less enamored of him if they had.
He compiled a 4.80 ERA in Arizona and a 12.51 in five games with Missoula. So he needed some work.
Regime change
At the end of the 2014 season Kevin Towers, the GM who drafted Toussaint, was bounced for Tony LaRussa and Dave Stewart.
Toussaint was promoted to Class A ball in Kane County in 2015 and went 2-2 with a 3.69 ERA.
On Toussaint’s 19th birthday, the D-backs traded him with Bronson Arroyo to the Braves for Phil Gosselin. The D-backs, who were not going to contend that season, wanted to dump Arroyo’s salary and they had to throw in Toussaint to make the deal.
D-backs fans were furious. This guy had been sold as the future, and the team gave him away for payroll flexibility. I have talked to numerous fans over the years, and this move stuck in their craw.
Toussaint spent the early part of this season with Columbus, the Guardians’ Class AAA affiliate, used chiefly in relief. This was his first appearance and first start of the season and at the MLB level.
Like most of the D-backs high draft picks, Toussaint hasn’t turned out to be anything special, at least so far. Although he made it to the majors relatively quickly, debuting with the Braves in 2018, he has a 10-8 record with a 5.79 ERA in six seasons.
Still, Toussaint is only 27. Cleveland has shown quite a knack for developing pitchers. It might not be too late.
And he still has a devastating curve, which he showed the first time he face Caroll, striking out the rookie swinging.
Not the worst move
Trading Toussaint was not the worst move, and it certainly wasn’t anywhere near the worst of the LaRussa-Stewart era. That would be a tie between signing Yasmany Tomas, a free agent from Cuba, for $68.5 million and trading Dansby Swanson, the overall No. 1 pick of the draft in 2015, for pitcher Shelby Miller, who was a complete disaster for the D-backs, going 5-18 with a 6.35 ERA across three seasons.
But while other Dbacks front office combos were more competent than LaRussa and Stewart in other areas, success in the first round of the draft seemed to plum evade all of them. From the days of Jerry Colangelo and Joe Garigiola Jr., through Towers, Jerry Dipoto, Josh Byrnes, and Bob Gebhard, the names changed but the lackluster draft results continued.
Three first-rounders, Stephen Drew, Justin Upton, and A.J.Pollock, became solid contributors with Arizona. Upton was even a two-time All-Star before the team shipped him to Atlanta. Pollock, an outfielder from Notre Dame taken with the 17th overall pick in 2009, was an All-Star in 2015 but was often injured.
Max and Trevor
Even when they hit on top picks, the D-back still missed.
Max Scherzer was chosen with the No. 11 overall pick in 2006. Called up in 2008, he was traded after the 2009 season. The organization had questions about his consistency and durability. He became a three-time Young winner, eight-time All-Star and is still an ace in his age 38 season.
They picked future Cy Young Award winner Trevor Bauer with the No. 3 pick in the 2011 draft. He made it to the majors by the next season, but the organization seemed to find him too big a pain in the neck and shipped him to Cleveland. It’s hard to second-guess that one.
Bauer won the Cy Young with the Reds in the Covid-shortened 2020 season. He then signed a three-year, $102 million contract with the Dodgers. In his first season, he was accused of sexual assault. After five months, the Los Angeles County District Attorney’s office announced it would not seek charges. MLB investigated and suspended him under its Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy. The Dodgers released him on Jan. 12, and he is playing in Japan.
Cust and Myers
The list of other first-rounders includes Jack Cust, who hit 105 homers in the majors but was named in the Mitchell Report on PEDS, and Corey Myers, the No.4 overall pick in the 1999 draft. He became a college softball coach and was involved in a sexual harassment scandal at Auburn University.
Hazen era
Mike Hazen, who spent two seasons as Red Sox GM, took over the GM duties after the 2016 season. The first draft pick on Hazen’s watch was Pavin Smith, a first baseman outfielder who led Virginia to the College World Series title. Smith went seventh overall.
Smith made it to the majors by 2020. Through June 20, he has slashed .244/.319/.386 with an OPS-plus of 93 and 28 homers in his career. So he is a below-average hitter overall with moderate power.
In 2018, the D-backs got the pick right, but the timing was wrong. They chose Matt McLain with the No. 25 pick overall. McLain, who burst upon the scene with the Reds this season, opted to go UCLA instead.
In 2019, the D-backs chose Carroll, a center fielder from the Lakeside School in Seattle, a prep school better known for producing captains of industry in high-tech than for baseball players. Among the school’s alumni are Microsoft co-founders Bill Gates and Paul Allen (Lakeside leased computer time on a mainframe computer in the 1960s and 70s for students; it may have been the only high school in the country doing that) Craig McCaw, founder of McCaw Cellular, and Adam Selipsky, CEO of Amazon Web Services.
The only other Lakeside grad to make the majors was John Leovich, a catcher who appeared in one game with the Philadelphia Athletics in 1941. (We will have more on Leovich later.)
In 2020 the D-Backs drafted Bryce Jarvis, a right-handed pitcher from Duke. Jarvis has progressed steadily if not spectacularly to Class AAA Reno. He has an ERA north of 5.00, and MLB ranks Jarvis as only the D-backs’ 24th-best prospect. So put that down as a miss.
But the D-backs got back on track in 2021, taking Jordan Lawlar, a high school shortstop from Dallas, with the No.6 pick overall, and Druw Jones, son of former Braves All-Star Andruw Jones.
MLB ranked Lawlar as baseball’s seventh-best prospect and Jones 10th, making Arizona the only organization with two to 10 prospects.
In the midst of the drafts, Hazen took “a physical leave of absence” in June 2021 to care for his wife, Nicole. She died of brain cancer in August 2022.
The anointed one
At this point, Carroll appears in a league of his own. Listed as 5-feet, 10 inches, and 165 pounds, Carroll is one of the fastest players in MLB, and he has power. He hit 28 homers in 142 minor league games over three seasons.
Called up late in 2022, Carroll hit 260/.330/.500. and 830 OPS. The D-backs thought that was enough to confirm their judgment about his future.
They signed him an 8-year $111 million deal.
With a youthful core that includes Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, Geraldo Perdomo, and a resurgent Ketel Marte, the D-backs find themselves in first place in the NL West in late June.
The present looks good and the future looks better.