The bargain hunt for Red October
Young players give Cincy fans hope. Should ownership have spent more to shore up the roster? Plus, will anyone sign Trevor Bauer?
Are the Reds ready to make a run? © Alexey Novikov | Dreamstime.com
TOP OF THE FIRST
Would you root for Trevor Bauer if your team signed him?
Teams are always looking for pitchers. But when it comes to Trevor Bauer, every MLB team seems to be looking the other way.
A former All-Star and Cy Young winner, Bauer, 33, can still throw 99 mph and says he is willing to sign for the minimum.
So far, he has no takers.
Bauer has been accused of some bad stuff.
Never convicted. Never tried. Not in any court.
He’s just been accused.
The whole, sordid mess
In 2021, a San Diego woman accused him of beating and sexually assaulting her on two occasions.
These encounters began as consensual but rough sex, but Bauer went beyond their agreed-upon boundaries, she said. The Pasadena Police Department investigated. The prosecutor declined to file charges. She filed for a restraining order, which the judge did not grant.
MLB investigated. Turns out there were other problems with Bauer. The Washington Post found a woman from Ohio had sought an order of protection in June 2020, and a third woman accused him of sexual assault in 2022. Bauer has denied all these allegations.
MLB suspended Bauer for 324 games for violating its domestic violence and sexual assault policy. He appealed and got his suspension reduced to 194 games. The Dodgers released him.
The Dodgers paid $61 million of the $102 million deal that he signed before the 2021 season.
His accuser filed a lawsuit against Bauer, who countersued. They wound up both dropping their suits.
Bauer claimed that through discovery in his lawsuit, he gained access to text messages from his accuser that indicated she was planning to take him for some money before they had sex.
Japan and beyond
Bauer spent the 2023 season in Japan, where he went 10-4 with 2.76 ERA for the Yokohama DeNA BayStars.
Now he is playing for an outfit called Asian Breeze. He faced and overpowered some Dodger minor-leaguers March 10 on one of the back fields at Glendale Camelback Ranch, the spring training complex the Dodgers share with the White Sox.
USA Today’s Bob Nightengale was on hand to chronicle the event and noted that there were no MLB scouts or team executives there.
Bauer is scheduled to face the Yankees in Mexico on March 24. Maybe that will draw some attention from decision-makers.
What are the chances?
Bauer almost certainly has the ability to pitch in the major leagues. Is he going to get the chance this season?
I’d say it’s less than 50-50.
Bauer has always brought a lot of baggage. He was drafted by the D-backs, who traded him after one season largely because he was too much of a pain in the butt. He had his own training routine — which the D-backs could live with — but they found he didn’t to really want to listen to anyone in the organization.
With Cleveland, he cut a finger while repairing a drone, and that limited his availability in the then-Indians’ postseason run in 2016. The team lost in seven games in the World Series.
At times he has been brilliant, but he has put together only one truly great, full season. In 2018, he went 12-7 with a 2.21 ERA and was an All-Star. His Cy Young Award came with the Reds in the Covid-shortened 2020 season.
What about the quarterback?
While Bauer is innocent in the eyes of the law, he is not innocent in the eyes of MLB. And a significant portion of any fan base where he signs would see him as guilty.
Well, what about DeShaun Watson? The quarterback was sued by more than two dozen massage therapists in Houston who accused Watson of sexually harassing them. Cleveland fans were, for the most part, happy the Browns landed him in the aftermath of that scandal.
Quite frankly, I think baseball fans have higher standards for player conduct. And Watson was perceived as more of an impact player than Bauer would be.
Maybe fans caught up in the excitement of a push for the playoffs would look the other way if Bauer was signed. Perhaps, there will be more interest in Bauer later this season.
Bauer’s career stats
HEART OF THE ORDER
Tickled Pink
Reds fans have reason for optimism with a core of young players. Should the team have done more in the off-season?
It was the spring without hope for Reds fans.
Over four days in March 2022, the Reds made three deals that let Cincinnati fans know in no uncertain terms that the upcoming season would be long and fruitless. Then as a bonus, the owner’s son and team’s Chief Operations Officer, Phil Castellini, basically told fans his family was doing them a favor just by owning the team.
Now two years later, there is hope for Reds fans. Ownership isn’t any better than two years ago. But the players are.
And the fans feel it. The Athletic has run something it calls a “Hope-a-Meter” before each MLB season since 2022. It is an unscientific survey of readers who identify with a certain team and asks if those readers/fans are optimistic and why.
Of the Reds fans who participated, 95. 9 percent said they were optimistic about the upcoming season, a considerable jump from 4.4 percent last season and 5.9 percent in 2022.
The Reds are coming off a surprising 82-80 season that saw them fall just two games short of the D-backs for the final playoff spot. With a core of young players, the future suddenly looks bright for the Reds.
The turning point
After losing 100 games in 2022, last season’s Reds looked like they would deliver improved results but still finish below .500.
They were 29-35 entering play on June 10th. They went on a 12-game winning streak, jumping into first place in the NL Central.
By Aug. 16, the Reds had equaled their win total from the previous season.
Their improvement of 20 more wins from 2022 was second only to the World Series-winning Texas Rangers, whose 2023 regular season win total was 22 games better than the season before.
Leading the Reds’ resurgence was shortstop Elly De La Cruz, who announced his presence in his second game with a homer off the Dodgers’ Noah Syndergaard on June 7 in the bottom of the first of an 8-6 win.
With an eye-catching blend of speed, strength, and a rocket for a throwing arm, De La Cruz is considered one of the top young talents in the game, despite a slump at the end of the season. He batted .186 from Aug. 16 on, and he finished with a slash line of .235/.300/.410 with an OPS of .710 with 13 homers and 35 stolen bases.
Other young guns that contributed to the Reds' improvement included:
Spencer Steer slashed .271/.356/.464 with 23 homers and finished sixth in Rookie of the Year voting and started at five positions.
Middle infielder Matt McLain batted .290, slugged .504 and finished fifth in Rookie of the Year voting.
Center fielder TJ Friedl, technically not a rookie, stole 27 bases, slashed .279/.352/.467 and hit 18 homers.
Noelvi Marte finished the season with a 16-game hitting streak, tying the Reds’ record for a rookie, set by Benny Zientara in 1946.
Second-year reliever Alexis Díaz, 26, was an All-Star selection and was the closer.
Andrew Abbott went 8-6 with a 3.87 ERA and was the most effective of five starters — including Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft and Brandon Williamson and Nick Lodolo — in their age 25 season or younger.
For a game against the Angels in August, rookies filled the first five spots in the Reds’ starting lineup for the first time since 1909. The Reds also started Lyon Richardson, a rookie, on the mound in that game.
The gut punches
While there are plenty of reasons for Reds fans to be excited for the future, they received some bad news during spring training.
McLain is having shoulder problems and may need surgery, or he may be able to rehab it and play. As of this writing, it looks like he will miss opening day.
Friedl broke his right wrist while diving for a ball.
Marte was suspended for the first 80 games of the season because he tested positive for steroids.
Still, not as bad as what happened two years before.
On March 13, 2022: The Reds sent pitchers Sonny Gray and Francis Peguero to the Minnesota Twins for pitcher Chase Petty, who had one season in the Florida Complex League under his belt.
The next day the Reds traded outfielder Jesse Winker and third baseman Eugenio Suárez to the Seattle Mariners for pitchers Justin Dunn, and Williamson, outfielder Jake Fraley, and a player to be named, which turned out to be Connor Phillips.
Fraley has hit a respectable .257 with a .341 OBP and a 113 OPS+ in two seasons with the Reds and is likely to see considerable playing time with Friedl out.
On March 16, the Reds traded pitcher Amir Garrett to the Royals for pitcher Mike Minor and cash.
The Reds had already lost star outfielder Nick Castellanos, who declined a qualifying offer and signed as a free agent with the Phillies
Pitcher Wade Miley had been claimed off waivers by the Chicago Cubs. And the Reds traded veteran catcher Tucker Barnhart to the Tigers for third baseman Nick Quintana, who had struggled to hit in the minors.
Fans felt betrayed that the Reds had done another teardown. The team has only made the playoffs once — in the Covid-shortened 2020 season — since 2013.
And Phil Castellini made things worse in a radio interview on opening day.
“Well, where are you going to go?” Castellini said when asked why fans should remain loyal. “Sell the team to who? That’s the other thing: You want to have this debate? . . . What would you do with this team to have it more profitable, make more money, and compete more in the current economic system? It would be to pick it up and move it somewhere else. Be careful what you ask for.”
While Castellini apologized that day for his outburst, they left a mark. It seemed a far cry from when Robert Castellini bought control of the team in 2006.
“We're buying the Reds to win. Anything else is unacceptable," Robert Castellini said back then.
No big splash
The Castellinis could have gone a long way to find their way back into the fans’ good graces this off-season. Finally free of Joey Votto’s $20 million-per-year contract — long thought to preclude the Reds from taking on big contracts — this looked like a good opportunity to shore up the roster, particularly the pitching.
The Reds spent some money but didn’t make a big splash. And they will enter the 2024 season with a $78.4 million payroll, the 25th highest in MLB.
The Reds’ bullpen was decent last season, ranking 16th with a 4.11 ERA. Díaz converted 37 saves in 40 opportunities.
But the team had the third-worst ERA among starters, a whopping 5.43. While the Reds have a group of starting pitchers they expect to get better, adding some veteran arms for the rotation seemed an obvious choice.
The Cardinals, whose starters were only nominally better (St. Louis starters ranked 26th with a 5.08 ERA) than the Reds’, committed $99 million to sign three proven veterans to bolster their rotation.
They signed Sonny Gray to a three-year, $75 million deal, Lance Lynn to a one-year deal for a $10 million salary and a $1 million buyout with a club option, and Kyle Gibson to a one-year, $12 million deal and $1 million with a club option for 2025.
That trio may not make anyone forget Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, and Tom Glavine, but all three are a definite upgrade from what the Cardinals had.
The Reds’ big move was signing Frankie Montas to a $14 million contract with a $20 million mutual option for 2025.
Montas made just one start last season for the Yankees after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his right shoulder. Montas is three years removed from his best season, when he went 13-9 with a 3.37 ERA for the A’s, led the American League in games started with 32, and finished sixth in Cy Young Award voting.
They also signed Nick Martinez, 33, to $14 million next season and with a $12 million salary in 2025 if he doesn’t opt out. Martinez will start the season in the rotation but is expected to move back to the pen once Lodolo is ready.
The Reds are showing a lot of faith in their young, unproven staff, which may prove penny-wise and pound-foolish.
SHORT HOPS
Oops
In our last edition, I wrote that Randy Johnson had vaporized a bird during a spring training game at Scottsdale Stadium. The famous incident occurred at Tucson Electric Park.
How many grades did he skip?
While mere humans like myself get details wrong, I have never known baseball-reference.com to be wrong about anything. Until now.
The site lists J.D. Durbin, a right-handed pitcher who had short stints with the Twins, D-backs and Phillies, as having attended Coronado High School and Scottsdale High School. Here is the problem. Scottsdale High School, alma mater of Hall of Fame pitcher Jim Palmer, closed in 1983.
Durbin was born in 1982.
Four lefties a rarity
Left-handers Jesus Luzardo, A.J. Puk, Ryan Weathers, and Trevor Rogers will open the season in the Marlins’ starting rotation.
If all goes to plan, and they each make at least 20 starts, it will be just the fifth time in MLB history that four lefties have each made at least 20 starts for one team in a season.
Until 2013, it had only been done once — the 1953 Senators with Mickey McDermott, Johnny Schmitz, Chuck Stobbs, and Dean Stone.
The 2013 White Sox (John Danks, Jose Quintana, Chris Sale, and Hector Santiago), the 2015 Chicago White Sox (Danks, Quintana, Carlos Rodon, and Sale), and the 2017 Dodgers (Rich Hill, Clayton Kershaw, Hyun Jin Ryu, and Alex Wood) are the other teams to pull it off.
Reinvention fails — for now
Charlie Culberson, a career utility man and .248 hitter, was trying to reinvent himself as a pitcher with the Atlanta Braves. The Braves decided they’d seen enough of this experiment and released him on March 23.
Culberson has played 586 games in the majors and pitched 7⅓ career innings pitched over eight regular-season appearances, posting a 1.23 ERA without a decision.
But he gave up six earned runs over two innings this spring.
ESPN reports that he doesn’t plan to retire.
Keep on keepin’ on, Charlie.
Mets-Matz-Metz
On March 9, Steven Matz of the Cardinals pitched against his former team, the New York Mets. And who was the home plate umpire in this duel between Matz and Mets? Why, it was Jacob Metz.