The Last Hurrah!
Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, and Brandon Belt have defied age and the odds to lead the Giants to 105 wins this season.
Also in this edition:
The Cardinals should thank FansGraph for showing the challenge the team need to overcome in order to make the playoffs.
World Series matchups with built-in story lines
A birthday greeting from Danica McKellar
HEART OF THE ORDER
Aging Giants have led the team to best season since 1904. But they still haven’t shaken the Dodgers and face the possibility of a postseason without Brandon Belt.
If you believe in omens, Buster Posey delivered one on Opening Day.
Batting seventh in the Giants order, Posey hit a bases-empty homer in the second inning against the Seattle Mariners.
“Buster Posey announced his MLB return in the loudest possible way,” was the headline on Alex Pavlovic’s story at NBC Sports Bay Area.
A feel-good story on the first day of the season: Posey — the NL Rookie of the Year in 2010, MVP in 2012, star of the Giants’ three World Series winners. six-time All-Star at catcher — made his triumphant return to the game after sitting out the 2020 season because of his concerns about COVID-19 and the risk to his young family.
Though he brought a lifetime .301 average into the season, conventional wisdom had it that Posey’s best days at the plate were behind him — or rather behind it. He still had value as a leader and a catcher. He was a fan favorite and not to mention the highest paid player on the team, schedule to make $22.2 million in 2021, with another year to go on his contract
Low expectations
Posey, who was beginning his age 34 season, had not batted seventh since his rookie season. Manager Gabe Kapler tried to spin it that batting Posey so low in the order showed the Giants’ depth.
He shut down his 2018 season because he needed hip surgery. He returned to play 105 games in 2019, hitting .257 with an OPS-plus — which shows how a hitter on-base percentage and slugging compares to the rest of league, factoring in the player’s home park — was 84, well below the league average, which is always 100.
The prospects for the team were not bright either.
“The Giants’ offense is not what it once was, and Buster Posey, despite the real hope that remains for a bounce-back season, is not the dominant hitter he once was,’’ Mark Sanchez wrote for KNBR radio
The Dodgers, coming off their first World Series title since 1988, were expected to win the NL West for the ninth straight season. The Padres, featuring one of the game’s budding super stars, Fernando Tatis Jr., were likely to challenge Los Angeles but probably were looking a wild card spot. Best-case scenario for the Giants was fighting with the Diamondbacks or Rockies for third.
Late on the rebuild
The Giants made in the playoffs in 2016 as the wild-card and lt in the divisional round. The next year they collapsed, going 64-98 and finishing last in the NL in homers.
Farhan Zaidi took over the Giants baseball operations in 2018. The former Dodgers general manager and an assistant GM with the A’s, Zaidi is well-versed in analytics and could look at the organization with fresh eyes. Surely a teardown and rebuild were coming.
As bad as they played in 2017, Giants still drew 3.3 million fans, so you can see why there was no hurry to do a tear-down.
In 2018, the Giants bounced back, going 73-89. In 2019, it was the Last Waltz for Bruce Bochy as manager. Though the team stayed in contention for the postseason until near the end, the Giants finished below .500 again.
In the shortened season of 2020, the Giants nearly made the expanded playoff field, but suffered through their fourth straight losing season.
The glory days of winning three World Series in five years were gone — but somehow three core once-young players from that era were till there.
Besides Posey there was Brandon Belt (age 33 season) and Brandon Crawford (age 34) — two stalwarts of the 2012 and 2014 world championship teams.
Throw in Evan Longoria, now 35, acquired in a trade with Tampa Bay after the 2017 season and its a regular over-the-hill-gang.
Heck even Mike Yastrzemski, the best player on the team on 2020 by Baseball Reference’s Wins Above Replacement meatric and a relative newcomer is in his age 30 season. Yastrzemski didn’t make it to the majors until 2019
Logan Webb is the only pitcher in the starting rotation who is under 30.
The Giants brought back Scott Kazmir, who is 37, and didn’t pitch anywhere in 2018 and 2019, then spent 2020 in the Constellation Energy League, a development circuit in Texas affiliated with the Sugarland Skeeters.
Somehow it works
Through Thursday Sept. 30, the Giants had won 105 games, more than in any season since the team moved to San Francisco in 1958 and second in franchise history to the 106 won by the 1904 New York Giants.
Posey is hitting .306 with 18 homers and an OPS-plus of 142. Belt hit a career-high 29 homers and had .975 OPS before he fractured his thumb while trying to bunt lst weekend Crawford is hitting .301 with a .905 OPS and 24 homers.
The Giants, who finished last in the league in homers four years ago, are on top of NL in that category. They have hit 238 homers this season a club record, eclipsing the 2001 Giants (that was the year Barry Bonds his 73).
The Giants head into the final weekend of the season with a two-game lead over the Dodgers in the NL West. There is still the possibility the Giants will wind up playing in the one-game wild card elimination game.
They don’t know when or if Belt will make it back during the postseason.
But who — even the most optimistic among the Giants or their fans — could have imagined a season like this in April.
BONUS FRAMES
The 6 percent solution: Cardinals defy the number crunchers
Many things are possible in baseball. Decidedly fewer things are probable.
The St. Louis Cardinals pulled off the improbable in a way that seemed impossible. They won 17 straight games from Sept. 11 to Sept.. 28 to clinch a wild-card berth.
“FanGraphs had us at like a negative 400 percent chance to make the playoffs,” ace Adam Wainwright said, “and we just proved everyone wrong.”
Actually, the site never had to Cardinals that low. But it was really low. It was 6 percent on Sept. 1 and down to 2.8 percent on Sept. 7.
For its part, FanGraphs responded with humor and grace, although a writer at Deadspin took great umbrage at Wainwright’s exaggeration.
“Adam, we can tell the difference between an oriole and a cardinal, give us some credit please,’’ the site tweeted.
You could see why Wainwright would distort the actual odds a tad, especially in an era when athletes and teams love “We shocked the world!” narrative. And let’s face it, are there any sweeter words in English language than “We were right and you were wrong”?
Maybe “We are better than you!” when your team wins. But even in today’s “Let the Kids Play,” trash-talk is half-the-fun, it’s not poor sportsmanship, it’s good marketing world, there still some social taboo associated with it.
But joyously pointing out the other person — even if this case ”the other person” isn’t some smart-ass sports writer or an announcer or a podcaster or blogger but a formula that comes up with an easy to understand (as easy as numbers get) value for a team’s chances — is wrong, well that’s fair game.
The numbers make it more impressive
Actually, Wainwright should thank FanGraphs and its bloodless, soulless mathematical reasoning. The low percentage of success the site’s formula assigned to the Cardinals really gives context to challenge the team overcame.
The day the streak started, the Cardinals began play four games behind the Padres, the leaders for the second wild card spot. The Reds were half a game behind the Padres.
That doesn’t sound so daunting.
FanGraphs’ algorithm showed there was a 95 percent chance the Cardinals would miss the postseason.
Now that is a bleak outlook.
That number, clearly stating the limited chance of success, means that nobody can disparage the Cardinals’ accomplishment simply by pointing out the Padres had been fading since July or that Reds still might have edged out the Cardinals if Cincinnati had a bullpen that could hold a lead.
A modest start
Though the Cardinals were close in the standings to the leaders for the second wild-card spot, the team was disappointing. The Cards began play Sept. 11 only two games over .500. What’s more is that based on their runs scored and runs allowed (-14), they should have had a losing record. I am guessing that figured into the Cardinals’ low probability percentage.
That night, the Cardinals fell behind the visiting Reds 4-0. St. Louis chipped away and tied it in the sixth when Dylan Carlson’s short fly ball fell just out of the reach of three Reds fielders.
In the eighth inning, Paul Goldschmidt doubled, went to third on a groundout by Tyler O’Neill and scored when Nolan Arenado yanked one over the left field fence for his 30th home run.
Giovanny Gallego got two strikeouts and a ground out to close out the game.
Pop, pluck and luck
Those four players would played big roles in the res to the streak streak.
Goldschmidt and O’Neill each hit seven homers during the streak. Goldschmidt hit .391, slugged ,844 and had an 1.317 OPS.
O’Neill had a .324 average with a 1.041 OPS.
Nolan Arenado bit .282 with five homers, two doubles, a triple and .957 OPS.
Overall the Cardinals hit 31 homers during the streak.
Gallego inherited the closer role after Alex Reyes faltered in late August and early September. He converted eight of nine save chances and has an ERA of 0.90 during the streak.
In one save he blew — at the New York Mets on Sept. 14 — the Cards scored three runs in the top of the 11th and hung onto win 7-6.
The Cardinals won 11 road games during the streak.
And they turned one of the more unlikely double plays you will see on their way to win No. 15, one that involved catcher Yadier Molina and center fielder Harrison Bader chasing a runner between second and third.
That’s when you know things are going your way.
Fall Classic Matchups
Possible World Series matchups with built-in story lines.
You could have been us
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago White Sox: Car dealer and future commissioner Bud Selig arranged for the White Sox to play a few home games in 1969 at Milwaukee’s County Stadium. The games drew well, and Selig made a deal to buy the team. The American League owners voted it down. They wanted to keep Chicago as a city in their league.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. San Francisco Giants: In 1992, Giants owner Bob Lurie made a deal to sell the team to a group that planned to move the franchise to the Tampa-St. Petersburg area. MLB wanted the team to stay in San Francisco and nixed the sale, citing concerns about some of the potential owners’ backgrounds.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: The Giants were heading for Toronto unless the Giants could find a local buyer. Bob Lurie couldn’t quite swing the purchase price by himself. At the last minute, he enlisted Phoenix cattleman Bud Herseth to buy 49% of the team.
Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers: Seattle’s first stint as a big-league city lasted only one season. In fact, there were reports that the team, the Pilots, might finish the season in some other city. After an off-season filled with financial and legal maneuvers, car dealer and future commissioner Selig bought the team and moved it to Milwaukee.
You were us
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: The Braves and Red Sox, who shared Boston as home for more than half a century, never met in an all-Boston World Series. It almost happened in 1948. The Braves won the National League title. The Red Sox and Indians tied for the AL title. But the Indians won in a playoff and went on to win the Series. Five years later, the Braves moved to Milwaukee. (They relocated to Atlanta in 1966). I am guessing there are not a lot of Braves fans left in Boston.
New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Dodgers or San Francisco Giants: The Yankees met their former New York-based rival 13 times in the World Series before the Dodgers and Giants left for the West Coast in 1958. The Yankees have played the Giants once and the Dodgers four times in the Series since. But it has been awhile. The Yankees defeated the Giants in 1962. The Dodgers beat the Yankees in 1962 and 1981. The Yankees beat the Dodgers in 1977 and 1978.
You stole a World Series from us
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros: We now know the Astros used their high tech/ low-tech sign-stealing system in the 2017 postseason. The Dodgers and their fans are rightfully angry about losing the World Series that year to that team.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox adopted the Astros’ nefarious methods in the 2018 regular season. But by the postseason, MLB was suspicious and closely monitoring the situation. So the Sox were not cheating when they met the Dodgers in the 2018 Series. Try explaining that to angry Dodgers fans.
Haven’t seen you in a while
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: The Yankees have won 27 World Series, the most of any team. The Cardinals have won the second most, 11. The Yankees and Cardinals met five times from 1926 and 1964. But they have not faced off in October since. That’s kind of odd because both teams have been frequent pennant winners during that span. The Yankees have been 11 times to the Series since 1964; the Cardinals have been nine times.
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: These teams have not met in October in more than a century. Back in 1917. the Sox won the Series in six games, scoring in the winning run in Game 6 when Eddie Collins got into a run-down, and the Giants botched the play. Catcher Bill Rariden had started the run-down by chasing Collins back to third and tossing the ball to Henie Zimmerman. When Collins broke toward home, no one was covering the plate. Zimmerman tried in vain to catch the much faster Collins. The play became known as “Zimmerman’s Chase.”
Boston Red Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: These teams have not played each other in the Series since 1911. The Red Sox won 4 games to 3 in a Series that went eight games (Game 3 was an 11-inning tie). The Series featured Giants star pitcher Christy Mathewson and Red Sox young phenom “Smoky” Joe Wood. The Sox took Game 8 in 11 innings. The winning run scored after Giants center fielder Fred Snodgrass dropped an easy fly ball. The miscue became known as “Snodgrass’ Muff,” which like “Merkel’s Boner” a few years earlier, had a different connotation in the early 20th century than it does now.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago White Sox (kind of): While the Cardinals and Cubs have been intense rivals for decades, there has not been a Chicago-St. Louis World Series since 1886 when the Chicago White Stockings of the National League met the St. Louis Brown Stockings of the American Association. This all kind of confusing, but the White Stockings became the Cubs (not the White Sox) and the Brown Stockings became the Cardinals (not the St. Louis Browns, who were the perennial doormats of the American League). The players on the winning team would get all the gate receipts. The Brown Stockings won the in six games. The deciding run was scored in the tenth inning on a play that became the most famous baseball moment of the 19th century, Curt Welch’s “$15,000 Slide.” That was a slight rounding up of the total prize money the Brown Stockings split. How did Welch score? Well, possibly he stole home; possibly he scored on a wild pitch; possibly he scored on a passed ball. And likely as not, Curt Welch scored standing up..
BEYOND THE PLAYING FIELD
Life with Christia: Happy birthday from Danica
My wife has watched of TV since March 2020 when the world broke. One of her go-to genres is Hallmark movies.
Now these movies get bashed a lot. The plots are similar. They will never gain critical acclaim.
But they are entertaining, and she likes them. And I like that she likes them.
After she watches a Hallmark movie, she is cheerful. After she watches darker stuff, her mood is dark as well.
For example, after she views "Gray’s Anatomy,” I get questions like “Have you ever had an affair at work?” (No — nor away from work.)
Because Christia likes to watch TV at a volume that I can hear almost anywhere in the house, I often feel like I am watching.
Thus I have grown familiar with Hallmark fare. I have even found a couple actresses I like.
Recently our friend Katie asked me if Christia had any favorite stars on the Hallmark Channel, and I said:
“Danica McKellar and Lacey Chebart . . . well, actually those are my favorites.”
Well anyway today, Christia got a birthday message from Danica. You can book these Hallmark stars for custom messages. (Danica donates her earnings to children’s charities.) And this what Katie did.
Most impressive: Danica actually pronounced my wife’s name properly. Several times.
It’s KRIST-cha. It usually gets butchered as Christine, Kristi, Kersty, Christina …
Yeah, I bet Olivia Colman would have botched it, too.